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internal strife, atrocities and conflict in Darfur, Sudan is gradually turning around its economy with growth-oriented, IMF-mandated infrastructure investments and economic policies. Sudan began exporting crude oil in 1999 and has increased production to 500,000 bbl/d since the completion of an oil pipeline two years ago.

As oil revenues revitalize local light industry and expand export processing zones, annual real GDP growth rates are reaching the highest levels of the Arab world. Chinese energy firms such as PetroChina and Sinopec are aggressively exploring for petroleum in Sudan, while Western firms with small stakes there – such as BP’s 2.2 percent stake in PetroChina – have come under heavy pressure to divest from Sudan.

Metric

2005

2006

2007f

Forecast Real GDP Growth Rate

8.0%

12.1%

11.3%

Total Merchandise Imports

$5.03 billion

$7.04 billion

$8.45 billion

Merchandise Imports from the U.S.

$0.10 billion

$0.08 billion

$0.04 billion

Imports from USA (Annual Growth)

51.5%

–25.5%

–45.1%

U.S. Share of Import Market

2.0%

1.1%

0.5%

The United States is the largest single international donor to Sudan, providing much of the food dispensed by the U.N. World Food Program. While the U.S. Government and humanitarian groups hope to bring to justice those accused of committing genocide in Darfur, U.S. exporters have scaled back trade and direct investment in hopes that peace will come to Sudan and more appropriate business conditions will prevail.

Mauritania

Following an August 2005 bloodless coup, Mauritania held parliamentary elections in November 2006. A coalition of parties opposed to Mauritania’s outgoing leader won the largest block of seats in the country’s parliament.

New oil discoveries in the politically unstable Aigrette-1 zone have been found to be “technically encouraging but sub commercial” by wildcatters exploring offshore potential. Elsewhere in the country, Mauritania’s Chinguetti has proven reserves of about 120 million barrels of oil.

Metric

2005

2006

2007f

Forecast Real GDP Growth Rate

5.5%

14.1%

10.6%

Total Merchandise Imports

$1.12 billion

$1.41 billion

$1.57 billion

Merchandise Imports from the U.S.

$0.09 billion

$0.09 billion

$0.03 billion

Imports from USA (Annual Growth)

10.7%

5.0%

–65.2%

U.S. Share of Import Market

8.0%

6.2%

2.0%

Djibouti

Djibouti is a key transit port for the region and an international transshipment and refueling center. With an arid climate, few natural resources, and low industrial development, the nation is dependent on foreign assistance to finance development projects.

Djibouti is making a bid to become the Horn of Africa’s main regional shipping terminal through expansion of its port. President Ismael Omar Guelleh laid a foundation stone in November 2006 for a second phase of the $400-million facility upgrade to Doraleh port. The expansion, expected to be completed and operational by late 2008, includes the construction of a 2-kilometer container jetty for deep-water anchorage.


Metric

2005

2006

2007f

Forecast Real GDP Growth Rate

3.2%

4.2%

5.0%

Total Merchandise Imports

$0.99 billion

$0.98 billion

$0.97 billion

Merchandise Imports from the U.S.

$0.05 billion

$0.05 billion

$0.03 billion

Imports from USA (Annual Growth)

10.7%

–0.6%

–34.6%

U.S. Share of Import Market

5.0%

5.1%

3.1%

The port’s current capacity of 10 million tons of general cargo and 400,000 container units per year will be boosted by an additional 1.5 million off-loads a year.

Djibouti – 2007 Forecast Top Ten Manufactured U.S. Imports ($ Billion)

(SOURCE: IRmep)

Somalia’s ports have been negatively affected by recent fighting there, leaving Djibouti as the only major port with direct access to Addis Ababa and other Ethiopian cities.

Sectors to Watch

Export

4 Year Annual Growth Rate

2007 U.S. Export Opportunity

Automotive Parts and accessories 405% $0.483 million

Equipment

Medicinal equipment

432%

$0.276 million

Machinery

Agricultural equipment

57%

$0.192 million

Machine Tool

Metalworking machine tools

151%

$0.111 million

Chemicals

Chemicals

85%

$0.091 million

Somalia

Somalia has had no effective national government since 1991. That nation’s transitional government has asked the United States for $1 billion to help build a police force, national army, foreign ministry, tax revenue service, judicial system, and other government structures. »

Metric

2005

2006

2007f

Forecast Real GDP Growth Rate

2.4%

NA

NA

Total Merchandise Imports

$0.580 billion

$0.620 billion

$0.660 billion

Merchandise Imports from the U.S.

$0.01 billion

$0.01 billion

$0.02 billion

Imports from USA (Annual Growth)

–3.3%

125.3%

25.1%

U.S. Share of Import Market

1.7%

1.6%

3.0%


15   US-Arab Tradeline 2007 Outlook

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