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exported by sea. LNG prices are scheduled to rise through at least 2020, and if Yemen plays its cards right, healthy global demand for natural gas could have a substantial impact on Yemen’s bottom line.

Petroleum: The Hunt Oil Company is celebrating a quarter-century of activity in Yemen, but the celebration is bittersweet. Hunt is embroiled in a lawsuit with the Government of Yemen over an agreement that the company says was violated when the Government of Yemen cancelled Hunt’s contract. In the meantime, Yemen awarded Production Sharing Agreements to five non-U.S. oil companies on eight blocks. Oil Minister Khalid Mahfoudh Bahah announced that international energy companies are expected to invest an initial $99 million in exploration within the blocks.

Metric

2005

2006

2007f

Forecast Real GDP Growth Rate

3.8%

3.9%

2.5%

Total Merchandise Imports

$4.2 billion

$5.6 billion

$7.6 billion

Merchandise Imports from the U.S.

$0.2 billion

$0.3 billion

$0.3 billion

Imports from USA (Annual Growth)

–6.5%

17.4%

9.3%

U.S. Share of Import Market

4.8%

5.4%

4.0%

Ports: Yemen negotiated a 30-year $490 million upgrade and management agreement with DP World in mid-2005, but the agreement has been delayed because it has not received approved from the Yemeni Parliament. The project is currently stalled while the Government of Yemen awaits a decision from DP World and its local partner about whether to renegotiate terms. In the meantime, the port at Aden – one of the finest natural harbors in the world – is operating at half its capacity of 620,000 TEUs. Perhaps 2007 will be the year that the Government of Yemen comes to terms with DP World.

Observers will be watching carefully in 2007 to see if Yemen is able to capitalize on available opportunities with international investors.

Yemen – 2007 Forecast Top Ten Manufactured U.S. Imports ($ Billion)

(SOURCE: IRmep)


Sectors to Watch

Export

4 Year Annual Growth Rate

2007 U.S. Export Opportunity

Food

Rice

15%

$2.8 million
Equipment Medicinal equipment 15% $2.6 million
Photography Photo and service industry machinery 69% $2.6 million
Iron and Steel Iron and steel products 4688% $1.9 million
Pharmaceutical Pharmaceutical preparations 12% $1.9 million

Syria

The Congressionally-mandated Syria Accountability Act of 2003, enacted to remedy such issues as Syrian troops in Lebanon and Syrian transshipments of Iraqi oil during Saddam Hussein’s reign in Iraq, has effectively eviscerated bilateral trade between the United States and Syria.

Syria’s petroleum output has plateaued at 400,000 bbl/d, according to Syrian officials, who hope to maintain this level through increased domestic natural gas consumption to boost petroleum exports. 250,000 bbl/d of Syria’s total production is refined locally and 170,000 bbl/d is exported. Syria has recently made a promising new gas discovery at Breij, 60 miles from Damascus.

Metric

2005

2006

2007f

Forecast Real GDP Growth Rate

3.5%

3.2%

3.7%

Total Merchandise Imports

$6.0 billion

$6.3 billion

$6.6 billion

Merchandise Imports from the U.S.

$0.2 billion

$0.2 billion

$0.2 billion

Imports from USA (Annual Growth)

–25.8%

43%

–3.8%

U.S. Share of Import Market

3.3%

3.2%

3.0%

U.S. businesses are effectively prohibited from investing or operating in Syria by the Accountability Act. Although modest exports of some products will continue, the U.S. share of Syrian imports is likely to continue its slow fall in 2007.

Syria – 2007 Forecast Top Ten Manufactured U.S. Imports ($ Billion)

(SOURCE: IRmep)

Specialty bakery products and writing supplies from the United States are fading lights in a darkening constellation of U.S. exports to Syria.

Sectors to Watch

Export

4 Year Annual Growth Rate

2007 U.S. Export Opportunity

Food

Bakery products

2347%

$0.345 million
Writing Supplies Art and writing 47% $0.908 million

Sudan

The Republic of the Sudan is the largest Arab country by area, as well as the largest in Africa. In spite of headlines focused on »


14   US-Arab Tradeline 2007 Outlook

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