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Tower construction in Dubai, UAE.
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Total country import market sizing for 2007 is based upon the Institute for Research: Middle Eastern Policy (IRmep) “top down” model correlating country market import demand to historic and forecast economic growth. The “Arab Market Outlook” (AMO) model has undergone continued refinement, revisions and updates since 2002. 2006 year-end total imports reflect actual U.S. merchandise exports through December 2006. GDP growth data is sourced from the International Monetary Fund forecast. U.S. market share forecasts in the AMO model are based on historic growth trends, purchase “pipeline” analysis from varied information sources such as company press releases, contract tenders, and announcements from major regional buyers such as airlines or armed services officials.
Granular U.S. export category growth rates are estimated from four-year growth trends. For 2007, major market petroleum producer “top down” model predictions have been cross-checked against updated baseline “bottom up” country level models driven by import demand correlated to forecast petroleum prices from the Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2007.
Major cross-border services exports, such as travel, financial, education, consulting, and engineering, are not covered in this 2007 Outlook Report. In-country service sales by foreign affiliates of U.S. multinational corporations are also not included. Empirical data reveal that in one major country market, cross-border services accounted for year 2006 revenues equal to 35percent of the U.S. total export pie (services + merchandise). Cross-border service exports for comprehensive “solutions” sales involving equipment, installation, upgrades, maintenance, and training are resulting in services as a growing percentage of total exports.
As with any forecast, the numbers and estimates in this report should not be a sole source of planning information. Rather, they should be compared and contrasted against other public and proprietary data sources.
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United Arab Emirates
The United Arab Emirates’ transformation into the leading marketing and trans-shipment hub for multinational companies serving the Middle East and North Africa explains how a country with a population of only four million became the Arab market’s number one importer of U.S. goods. In recent years, the UAE has re-exported approximately one quarter of all merchandise goods to regional markets, and petroleum exports now account for only 30 percent of GDP. In addition to distributing foreign goods to the region, according to DMG World Media, Dubai’s own consumer goods market will soon account for the highest consumer retail spending in the region.
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Metric
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2005
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2006
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2007f
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Forecast Real GDP Growth Rate
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8.0%
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7.7%
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5.0%
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Total Merchandise Imports
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$60.2 billion
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$73.7 billion |
$72.3 billion
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Merchandise Imports from the U.S.
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$8.5 billion
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$11.9 billion
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$14.7 billion
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Imports from USA
(Annual Growth)
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108.6%
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40.6%
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23.7%
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U.S. Share of Import Market
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14.1%
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16.2%
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19.7%
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Dubai, one of the seven emirates that make up the UAE, will continue to capture global attention in 2007 with its innovative and sometimes audacious projects. Dubai Internet City (DIC), one of the world’s largest managed clusters of ICT companies, was recently recognized by Foreign Direct Investment magazine as the “Middle East Special Economic Zone of the Future.” The Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) aspires to be on par with financial centers in New York, London, and Hong Kong. And Dubai World Central (DWC), recently unveiled, is expected to incorporate the globe’s largest international airport into the world’s first integrated multi-modal logistics platform in a single-bonded free zone environment.
Dubai may be the public face that much of the world associates with the UAE, but the six other emirates are expanding rapidly. Abu Dhabi, for example, is an unassuming powerhouse that is expected to invest over $200 billion by 2010 in construction, water & electricity, and tourism, according to the Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Another $33 billion is slated for industry, including $22 billion for oil & gas projects designed to keep Abu Dhabi among the world’s leading energy producers.
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UAE – 2007 Forecast Top Ten Manufactured U.S. Imports ($ Billion)
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(SOURCE: IRmep)
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